How gold performed after U.S. midterm elections
Twelve months after the 13 U.S. midterm elections since 1974, gold was higher 8 times; the average change was +13.7% and the median +15.0%, from the November election month to the November a year later (monthly averages).
- Higher after 12 months
- 8 of 13
- Average
- +13.7%
- Median
- +15.0%
- Best
- +90.3%
- 1978
In context
The strongest year after a midterm was after 1978 (+90.3%); the weakest after 1974 (-22.0%).
By year: 1974 -22.0%, 1978 +90.3%, 1982 -8.0%, 1986 +17.6%, 1990 -5.8%, 1994 +0.3%, 1998 -0.3%, 2002 +22.3%, 2006 +28.3%, 2010 +26.9%, 2014 -7.6%, 2018 +20.5%, 2022 +15.0%.
The chart's Calendar holds the 2026 midterm scenarios, by result for the president's party.
Monthly average prices in U.S. dollars per troy ounce (Kitco.com and the World Bank Pink Sheet), from the last full month before a period to its last full month; the record runs Feb 1971 to Oct 2026. What the record did, not a forecast.
Updated Oct 2026 · record through Oct 2026